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Dramatic increases in HIV prevalence after scale-up of antiretroviral treatment: a longitudinal population-based HIV surveillance study in rural kwazulu-natal

Identifieur interne : 002904 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 002903; suivant : 002905

Dramatic increases in HIV prevalence after scale-up of antiretroviral treatment: a longitudinal population-based HIV surveillance study in rural kwazulu-natal

Auteurs : Jaffer Zaidi [Afrique du Sud] ; Erofili Grapsa [Afrique du Sud] ; Frank Tanser [Afrique du Sud] ; Marie-Louise Newell [Afrique du Sud, États-Unis] ; Till B Rnighausen [Afrique du Sud, Royaume-Uni]

Source :

RBID : PMC:4264533

Descripteurs français

English descriptors

Abstract

Objectives

To investigate HIV prevalence trends in a rural South African community after the scale-up of antiretroviral treatment (ART) in 2004.

Methods

We estimated adult HIV prevalence (ages 15–49 years) using data from a large, longitudinal, population-based HIV surveillance in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, over the period from 2004 (the year when the public-sector ART scale-up started) through 2011. We control for selection effects due to surveillance non-participation using multiple imputation. We further linked the surveillance data to patient records from the local HIV treatment programme to estimate ART coverage.

Results

ART coverage of all HIV-infected people in this community increased from 0% in 2004 to 31% in 2011. Over the same observation period adult HIV prevalence increased steadily from 21% to 29%. The overall increase in HIV prevalence was largely driven by the prevalence trends in women and men older than 24 years of age, i.e., the age group in which the largest proportions of HIV-infected people received ART.

Conclusions

The observed dramatic rise in adult HIV prevalence can be largely explained by increased survival of HIV-infected people due to ART. This interpretation is supported by the fact that the overall HIV prevalence trend is mostly due to increases in prevalence in older adults, i.e., in the age groups that currently benefit most from the local ART scale-up. Future studies should decompose HIV prevalence trends into HIV incidence and HIV-specific mortality changes to further improve the causal attribution of prevalence increases to treatment success rather than prevention failure.


Url:
DOI: 10.1097/QAD.0b013e328362e832
PubMed: 23669155
PubMed Central: 4264533


Affiliations:


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<p id="P1">To investigate HIV prevalence trends in a rural South African community after the scale-up of antiretroviral treatment (ART) in 2004.</p>
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<title>Methods</title>
<p id="P2">We estimated adult HIV prevalence (ages 15–49 years) using data from a large, longitudinal, population-based HIV surveillance in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, over the period from 2004 (the year when the public-sector ART scale-up started) through 2011. We control for selection effects due to surveillance non-participation using multiple imputation. We further linked the surveillance data to patient records from the local HIV treatment programme to estimate ART coverage.</p>
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<p id="P3">ART coverage of all HIV-infected people in this community increased from 0% in 2004 to 31% in 2011. Over the same observation period adult HIV prevalence increased steadily from 21% to 29%. The overall increase in HIV prevalence was largely driven by the prevalence trends in women and men older than 24 years of age, i.e., the age group in which the largest proportions of HIV-infected people received ART.</p>
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<p id="P4">The observed dramatic rise in adult HIV prevalence can be largely explained by increased survival of HIV-infected people due to ART. This interpretation is supported by the fact that the overall HIV prevalence trend is mostly due to increases in prevalence in older adults, i.e., in the age groups that currently benefit most from the local ART scale-up. Future studies should decompose HIV prevalence trends into HIV incidence and HIV-specific mortality changes to further improve the causal attribution of prevalence increases to treatment success rather than prevention failure.</p>
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